ESSL course: Aviation Forecasting of Severe Convection

About the event

• Ingredients-based probabilistic forecasting of severe convective  gusts (both from gust fronts and downbursts), large hail, and tornadoes.
• Forecasting storm coverage and storm top height.
• Forecasting the predominant convective mode (storm type), and anticipating the related predominant hazards.
• Anticipating severe turbulence in the presence of AACPs (Above-Anvil  Cirrus Plumes) above and downstream of overshooting cumulonimbus  clouds.
• Nowcasting of convection, including dealing with convective developments where numerical model guidance is poor.

Each day will consist of a morning lecture and of a practical afternoon exercise.

The four afternoon exercises will deal with interesting cases of relevance for aviation forecasting in Europe. They will involve forecasting convection either in the current  situation or using past cases for different parts of Europe in small  groups. After the forecast, a discussion will follow with an emphasis on  the subject that was studied during the morning.

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