ESSL course: Forecasting Severe Convection (FSC 2024 spring edition)
Basic concepts of (severe) convection forecasting are introduced with an emphasis on the ingredients based methodology. For each ingredient its importance for the convection along its diagnosis and prognosis will be presented. A special emphasis is put on the identification of “lift” or the process of convective initiation. After the basic ingredients, vertical wind shear, especially on its influence on the different organisational forms of convection (single cells, multicells, supercells) will be next. For each form, its basic conceptual model and relate it to the potential for severe weather will be investigated. Further, the course will concentrate on the synoptic and mesoscale patterns that are supportive of severe convection and negative factors that may degrade the severe convection risk. In the end are different types of severe weather, their link to the large-scale conditions and individual storm types.